WHAT IS OCCURRING [and] SOME GROUND TRUTH

Ever since I met my friends Hig and Erin, who write Ground Truth Trekking, http://groundtruthtrekking.org/ , I've been inspired to pay more attention to the natural health and changes we see in our environment, on all our outings, and document them. They are the couple who trekked and pack-rafted from Seattle to the Aleutians in 2007, and made a movie of it. They invited me to spend some time with them, in their Life On Ice expedition, on the Malaspina Glacier in Alaska, in October, 2011. An extremely interesting and dynamic place. 

http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2011/11/malaspina-encounter.html

Probably my most prominent memory of that area was the incredible pounding of the surf, it was deafening 200m inland and 5m higher; I had a hard time sleeping, having nightmares of being washed over. The Gulf of Alaska here has very strong low pressure systems in the fall, which generate huge and dangerous swells and waves. 

With that in mind, I very much am noticing the changes in our environment here in the Central Rockies, between my departure in 1998, and recent re-arrival. I had been down here many times in the interim from Alaska, mainly working as an NWS Incident Meteorologist, providing forecast support to wildfire suppression teams. Along with a few personal visits. Nonetheless, the changes are very noticeable. 

There is no doubt that Planetary Greenhouse Gas-Caused Warming has taken its toll on the forests/ecosystems here in the Central Rockies over the past 30 years. As the following article from 2009 attests. 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/323/5913/521

"Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. Our analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States showed that background (noncatastrophic) mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, with doubling periods ranging from 17 to 29 years among regions. Increases were also pervasive across elevations, tree sizes, dominant genera, and past fire histories. Forest density and basal area declined slightly, which suggests that increasing mortality was not caused by endogenous increases in competition. Because mortality increased in small trees, the overall increase in mortality rates cannot be attributed solely to aging of large trees. Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree mortality rates."

And in all our outings over the past 10 months here throughout the region, we have seen the effects, which we'll show you. But first, lets look at some actual data, in this case for Missoula, but it is representative for the larger area of the northern half of Idaho, and the western third of Montana. Which we have examined, places such as Lewiston and Lowell, ID, Kalispell, Butte, Bozeman, and Helena, MT. 

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

This Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) is a climate data viewing program maintained by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.), which is publicly available, and very useful for analysing current and past climatic data for points anywhere in the USA.  

Looking at just the annual average mean temperatures for Missoula, MT here since 1948 (chosen because that is when observations began at their current site of Johnson-Bell airfield), shows that it has increased about 3F (1.7C) since that time. Which is fairly representative of what has occurred across much of the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, since atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose from around 305ppm in 1948, to their current level of 400ppm. Levels not seen for quite some time. The last time atmospheric CO2 levels were this high, 3 million years ago, global sea levels were 20m higher, the climate of Northern Siberia was more like northern ID is currently, and the Arctic Ocean was ice-free most of the year.  http://www.sciencemag.org/content/337/6092/315.abstract  

How is this manifesting, here in the Central Rockies? Well, for one thing, extreme winter cold has been diminishing. Fewer winter cold spells, with lower magnitudes, overall. But it has been the summers that are most dramatically warming, and producing the greatest effects. In fact as we see it, the main hazard in this region in the coming 50 years will be hotter, drier summers, leading to widespread tree mortality at all elevations and increasing wildfire acreages. 

Which the two graphs, above, of Missoula/Central Rockies average fire season (mid June to the end of September generally) minimum temperatures, and the daily mean temperature (F) illustrate quite clearly. The minimum temperatures especially, as they are rising faster than the daily means and maximums. This is due to the increasing CO2 levels; CO2 absorbs long-wave infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and atmosphere, which at night is very prominent. And since levels have increased from 305ppm in 1948 to 400ppm currently, mainly from fossil fuel combustion, this is showing up markedly throughout the globe. Warmer nights in general, wherever they are occurring add more stress to vegetation, in the absence of any significant precipitation increases. What is called the Vapor Pressure Deficit (basically the relative humidity) increases (or RH is lower) for longer periods during the evening and night-time hours, causing vegetation to lose more moisture to evapo-transpiration. Drought-stress, in other words. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vapour_Pressure_Deficit

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

As you can see from these graphs, the hotter, drier summers have the largest fire acreages, which have been occuring in a six year cycle, since at least 1988 (1994, 2000, 2006, 2012). Accurate fire acreages for the Northern Rockies (USA) Geographical Area (NRGA

-ID north of the Salmon R, all of MT, Yellowstone NP WY, North Dakota, and a small piece of South Dakota) only date back to 1998. There is also a three year occasional sub-cycle. Summer precipitation so far has shown no significant downward trend, staying nearly flat for the NRGA. So there you have the trends. 

What have we been seeing?

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There are definitely more bug or other pest-killed trees, at the mid and higher elevations, mainly in the Subalpine Fir, as here in the Bitterroot Mtns. at the Bass Crk. falls, this past 21 November. This is around 1600m elevation. 

Likewise, looking up from bottom, in any of the canyons of the Bitterroot Mtns., you'll see alot of dead, mainly Whitebark Pines. A formerly common sub-alpine tree here, found above 2100m generally. As here around the striking Horsehead Arch, on the south wall of Blodgett Canyon, elevation around 2200m. 

An easily accessible area near Missoula where you can really see these effects is on the Carlton Ridge trail, which provides a quick route to get up 2795m Lolo Peak, the local high point. 

From about 7km and elevation 2100m in on this trail, which starts at 1800m, to the top of Carlton Ridge at 2550m, you'll see very healthy Subalpine Larch, Subalpine Fir, and Whitebark Pine, on this very cool, moist, steep north-facing slope. I took a tumble snow-shoeing in here early last June, there was still 1-2m snow then! 

As soon as you go up and over Carlton Ridge though, and start down the south-facing slope, the scenery changes dramatically. All of the Whitebark Pine are dead, Many of the Subalpine Fir are dying. So far the Subalpine Larch are hanging in. This is 2300-2500m, but the much warmer drier conditions on this south aspect have led to increased drought stress, and bug/pest-kill. All these trees were alive last time I was there in 1996. 

Here in the higher-elevation Pintler mountains, there is some Whitebark Pine mortality, but they're not quite as prevalent there, and only a few signs are starting to show in the Subalpine Fir, as here on the Storm Lake Rd., last 21 Nov., at around 2200m. 

2500m elevation Tamarack Lake, on the west flank of 3200m Warren Peak, showed healthy Subalpine Fir and Whitebark Pine stands. At these high elevations, in flat areas, night-time lows in winter can still occasionally get to -40C, which helps keep bug pest populations in check. 

Further north, in the Mission Mountains, at 1970m elevation aptly-named Turquoise Lake, there has been much more Whitebark Pine mortality. Probably because of the lower elevations here, 200-400m lower than much of the Pintlers. Night-time winter temperatures are probably not cold enough often enough, to limit the bug-pests as much as say, 30 years ago. 

You'll really see this on the beautiful purple and orange rock ridges above the amazing Turquoise Lake, looking back from 2100m toward the higher country on the other side of it. 

On the approach in to Turquoise Lake, you wind a ridge above 1700m elevation Glacier Lake, which is fed from Turquoise lake, 270m above. Here, the mid-elevation forests of Western Larch, Douglas Fir, and Englemann Spruce, are still fairly healthy. Some die-offs have occurred in the Subalpine Fir however. 

When you get to the 2100-2200m level on the Turquoise Lake trail, all the Whitebark Pine are dead, but so far most of the Subalpine Fir and Subalpine Larch look healthy. This makes for some striking sights, especially with these amazing purple, orange, and green, smooth rocks. 

Other areas in the region are showing similar signs, for instance, the Sapphire Mountains, on the other east side of the Bitterroot Valley. We also noticed during the hottest, driest weather this past summer late July to mid-August, many of the lower elevation (1100-1500m) stands of Ponderosa Pine, Western Larch, and Douglas Fir in the Rattlesnake Wilderness, just north of Missoula, were browning in the newer growth tips. Especially on any southerly or westerly facing aspects. Not a good sign, as it had been a very moist winter previously. We'll take a look at what likely trends will bring here in future articles. Suffice it to say big changes are very likely coming. Cheers. 

OPEC SAVES THE BEARTOOTH FRONT!

This Christmas last, the staff of the CRP decided to visit a place your lead editor has not been to since 1996. The little ex-coal mining, now ski/resort town of Red Lodge, in South-Central MT, near the WY border. 

There is a downhill ski area of the same name, which I skied in back then, but this time, since I've given up alpine skiing (for a number of reasons, mainly having to do with my left leg), decided to see what the Nordic skiing potential was like in this area. Red Lodge lies just to the east of the highest mountains in Montana, the Beartooths, rising to as high as 3700-3902m, and containing small glaciers on the highest peaks. The Beartooth Wilderness area protects this rough, wild region not too far west of town, and there were several trail possibilities to check out. 

It was a long 7.5 hours drive on slushy icy I-90, then US-212, 570km in total, from Missoula. Pretty stressful, and there had just been 20-30cm fresh new powder snowfall in Red Lodge when we arrived. Such that next day when the sun came out, this area (pop. 2300) was in all its glory. 

The 3000m mountain there behind town is just a foothill of the 3500-3900m higher Beartooth peaks off to the west. Our first outing the day after Christmas was a classic ski on the Lake Fork (of Rock Creek) trail, which penetrates directly in to the Beartooth Wilderness. 

The conditions were outstanding on our 25km ski on this slowly ascending trail, -10C, just a very light breeze, and the 20-30cm fresh Rocky Mtn. powder. The high country shone in the sun, up this canyon. We could only go in 12-13km before having to turn back around, my skinny waxless touring skis were not ideal when the trail became steeper and narrower. 

The CRP staff had a great time in these pristine peaceful surroundings, as beautiful a ski as anywhere we've ever been. 

 
Our resident powderhound Kluane, with his webbed front paws and thick coat, is uniquely suited to thriving in this environment. Whilst Mattie and I stayed together on our 25K ski in here, he probably ended up covering 3-4 times that with all his outings, sniffing around for news, and maintaining our security. 

Since this 25K ski only took us three hours, we decided to have a go at another area for some skate skiing. US-212 heading southwest from Red Lodge ascends 3307m Beartooth Pass, just before entering the north edge of Yellowstone NP. Needless to say, the highway is not maintained for the winter. So only 20km from town, at 2500m elevation, is the closure gate. I'd heard that there's usually enough snowmachine traffic to pack the road down, and allow for skate skiing. 

Here at the gate, looking in to the southwest and the very high country toward the pass, it was pretty chilly, -11C with a 20-40kph breeze. 

I only ended up doing a 10K skate ski on the highway, it wasn't too steep, but got too bumpy and still had alot of thick powder in spots. Not the ideal groomed surface skate skiing is best in. By the time I got back to our vehicle to re-group, Kluane had peeled off somewhere, so we had to search for him. 

He found an old deer hide below the highway closure gate hunters left behind from last fall and was heavily engrossed in its pleasures. So much so that I had to threaten to leave him behind unless he finished up and came back. I was getting chilled rapidly after getting heated up skating earlier at that high altitude and less than ideal conditions. He came to his senses fortunately, and we were able to make a quick getaway back to town. 

Red Lodge is a very beautiful little town, behind its quaint main street, Broadway, lies several blocks of 90-130 year old houses. The inhabitants are friendly and inquisitive, such as these wild turkeys and white-tail deer that roam freely through the neighborhood. Mule deer tend to stay on the hillsides surrounding town, Red Lodge lies at around 1723m elevation nestled in a 100m deep draw that beautiful clear rushing Rock Creek flows through, draining the high 3500-3900m Beartooths. A real treasure, that we'll be sure to keep coming back to, in all seasons.

Our second day there, we decided to check the West Fork Road, which also goes directly into the high Beartooths, but which is sometimes groomed for skiing after its winter closure. 

This road just heads due west into the Wilderness, reaching it about 8-10K up from the winter closure. It actually starts right near town, on the higher bench where all the newer vacation and resort homes are. 

It turned out that it wasn't groomed, so I couldn't skate ski in, had to use my skinny waxless classic touring skis. Even so, was able to get about a 25km ski in here, some east winds of 30-60kph came up, in the -10C conditions, not much fun then. At this 2100-2300m elevation, that happens alot. 

After finishing that and re-grouping, we wanted to glimpse the barren dry Beartooth Front, lying in the precip. shadow of the highest peaks in MT, the first low valley only gets 1/3 the precip. of Red Lodge, and would be a desert, were it not for the colder winters. It's just a short drive east from Red Lodge up and over a summit, then you can see the endless expanse of barren dry hills dropping down. With the moister Pryor Mtns. in the distance, where wild mustangs roam. 

The little town of Belfry, MT lies down in the lowest Valley, and sure enough, there was only patchy snow there, but 25-35cm depth in Red Lodge. 

The entire front of the Rocky Mountain range (the Rocky Mtn. Front!) from Colorado north into Alberta is similar geologically, and have deposits of oil and natural gas. Which unfortunately has subject some areas like the front north of Denver to highly focused and dense fracked oil and gas wells. Polluting the air and ground-water, leaking methane (100X as powerful a greenhouse gas as CO2 in the short term), and ravaging the surface. 

http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2012/03/free-market-train-jakarta-is-coming.html

We described the horrors of fracking during our previous incarnation, in the above article. 

Thus, the Beartooth Front has been in peril of seeing fracking activity similar to what is occurring in Colorado and North Dakota. 

https://www.northernplains.org/issues/beartooth-front/

As of a few months ago, this is where things stood, as far as increased possibilities of wells going in, etc.. 

But then, as if by magic, global oil prices began plummeting last month, and are now expected to remain at or below 40 USD per barrel (or lower!) for some time, likely years. 

http://commondreams.org/views/2015/01/14/opec-wants-crush-us-shale

This does concern us that many people might become complacent, and start driving more, buying more gas-guzzling larger vehicles, etc.. And that there will increased CO2 emissions as a result. But, at the same time, because fracking (and the mining of the Alberta Tar Sands) require a minimum oil price of 65 USD per barrel break-even point, this will shut them down. Which is very important to at least back off the accelerator a little bit of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Not to mention saving large areas from experiencing toxic ground and surface water pollution. We think this development will do more to help climate protection efforts, than will be lost due to the possibility of increased driving and larger vehicles (if that even happens). 

http://www.treehugger.com/energy-disasters/dont-drill-baby-dont-drill-positive-and-negative-impacts-recent-oil-crash.html

The above article gives a good run-down of the effects of the oil price crash, alot is still unknown. But for us, we are grateful this is happening, because the Beartooth Front will benefit, as will all the Rocky Mtn. front from Colorado, north into Alberta and the Tar Sands, in the boreal forest. And if we had a political and economic system that prioritised human needs and environmental protection for future generations above short term corporate profits, those people who would lose jobs/careers in any field because of its obsolescence or destructiveness, would not have to worry. Cheers. 

OUR PREFERRED SETTING - II PINTLER MTNS.

http://www.wilderness.net/NWPS/wildView?WID=10

The Pintler Mtns., which are 120-180KM SE of Missoula, rise to heights of 3000-3320m, and contain large elevated plateaus and lakes at elevations in excess of 2400m. 

As we explained previously in our Mission Mtns. post, although the Pintler Mtns. are 300-500m higher, because they are slightly further south and east, sheltered from weather systems moving in from the southwest and west, they receive less than half the annual precipitation. And hence, there are no permanent significant snowfields or glaciers on them. This also makes them a little more accessible though, even into the winter in parts, and with a much larger extent of terrain over 2000m than in the Mission Mtns., provides an unbeatable 4-season refugia for us. 

Above is the northern half of the range and it's wilderness area that protects it, while below is the southern half. 

When we moved down to Missoula last March, I needed to find a place like this for us that was fairly accessible, to provide relief from the hot summer conditions, as well as reliable snow for nordic skiing in winter. 

Just by looking at our Montana Gazetteer map book, I decided to give the Storm Lake Rd. a try last March, for some classic skiing. What a fortuitous discovery. Storm Lake is the highest real lake in Montana, at 2500m., it is about 1km long, and 500m wide. Access is very easy in summer, 15km dirt road from the main MT-1 highway just past Georgetown Lake, gently sloping up from 1900m to the Storm Lake at 2500m. In winter, the dry powder snow makes for outstanding skiing on it, although it does tend to be quite windy and much colder at the lake, at that elevation, so bring your extra layers. You'll get heated up skiing upslope to the lake, then watch out! 

Last March, the Central Rockies of Montana had a snowpack of 130-180 percent of average, which made for even more fantastic conditions. Once up to Storm Lake though, you have to be very careful, there are avalanche chutes on the steep slope above the western shore, and so we stick to the east shoreline trail. 

In fact, this incredible drift behind Storm Lake that Kluane was swimming in front of in early July was still left over from a release sometime during the previous winter. It required quite a precarious traverse on our pack trip that 04 July weekend up to Storm Lake Pass (only 6K in from Storm Lake, and which was still snowed in at 2940m). We actually had to set up camp below the pass and use that as a base to explore further into the wilderness, Goat Flat, and Seymour Lake. Goat Flat is an interesting high plateau, just about 9K from Storm Lake, up and over the pass, and along a nice cliff-side trail. It probably is the largest 3000-3150m high expanse in MT west of the Continental Divide. Reminds me of the higher elevations (around 1000m) in the Alaska Interior! 

You can see how large the snow drifts still were in early July there on the lip of Goat Flat by looking at our assistant editor Kluane, there is a precipitous 200m drop to Upper Seymour Lake, beneath it. 

The alpine terrain and scenery here is outstanding in June/July with the tundra wildflowers and snowfields in abundance. As well as mosquitoes, very much like Alaska also at this time! But not quite as bad as the AK interior, I never did have to resort to a headnet. At these high exposed elevations, it is often quite windy, and showers and thunderstorms develop rapidly in June-September, something to consider. We had to retreat to our camp beneath Storm Lake Pass on our July pack trip when some thunderstorms developed, but I was expecting this, and had planned accordingly. At these high elevations, this area is a sure way to beat the summer heat; when it reaches 34-38C down in the lower valleys such as Missoula at only 1000m, it will still only be 23-26C up here. 

One other factor to consider is this. Even though global warming is changing weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, and summers in the Central Rockies are warming significantly, at these higher elevations, low pressure systems in late August and September can still deliver temporary snowfalls, which just last a day or two. 

In fact, this past August the NWS numerical weather prediction models, GFS and NAM-12, both forecast a system cold enough to produce snow at the 2500m Storm Lake level on the 21st. Naturally we had to rush up there and enjoy it, as the hottest weather of the summer had just been occurring in Missoula, with daily high temperatures of 32-37C for a few weeks. 

Our intrepid associate editor Mattie had to make the most of it, though the Subalpine Larch and Subalpine Fir didn't seem quite as happy. But that's the price paid for living at these elevations in Montana. 

Fall colours still come early to the high country here, 2200m and above. The Central Rockies of MT and southern BC/AB are the only areas in the World to be blessed with little Subalpine Larch trees. A cousin of the much larger Western Larch, which grow in the lower elevations. These are one of the few deciduous conifers, and turn a nice yellow/orange by early to mid-September. 

As Mattie demonstrates. Here at 3050m on Goat Flat, they are at the highest elevation of their natural range, and hence are quite small. 

And when you are up on Goat Flat in early September, as here, a little of the early season snowfalls will hold on on shaded slopes, whilst the nice colours of the Subalpine Larch highlight many of the lower slopes and ridges. 

Another nice area of the Pintlers lies to the south and west, centered around 3200m Warren Peak. It's a longer, rougher road to get in to the main trailhead area, Carpp Lakes. These nice little subalpine lakes start at around 2100m elevation just 6km from the trailhead, and another 3km further in, is beautiful little Upper Carpp Lake, at the foot of Warren Peak. 

Needless to say, the entire CRP staff greatly enjoys retreating to this cool high-elevation paradise during the hot months of July and August. 

The evening sunset colour on the sheer rock face of Warren Peak is spectacular, and just as rewarding at sunrise. Unfortunately, this area is not as accessible in winter as the area around Storm Lake (though I would not go further up to Storm Lake Pass and Goat Flat either, too great of avalanche danger). The road in to the Carpp Lakes trailhead area is not maintained, so it would be a long 25K ski in, before even trying to hike or snowshoe any further (the trails further would be too narrow to ski on). But, into October or early November, before the heavy snows set in, the fall colours in this area are also outstanding. Combined with the deep blue Montana high elevation sky, it makes for beautiful trekking and camping, after very crisp frosty mornings which can start out as cold as -10 to -15C. 

Just a few short KM further from the Upper Carpp Lake, at 2400m right at the base of Warren Peak, is 2700m Warren Pass. In this area, you get great views of all the higher Pintler peaks, and can clamber up the slopes of 3200m Warren Peak. 

Though it is very steep and rocky, and we may not make a summit attempt. It's extremely exposed and windy and you would need perfect high pressure ridging type weather. On the other side of Warren Peak, along the west slopes, there are trails to other lakes. A beautiful 25K round trip hike from the Carpp Lakes trailhead will get you to 2500m elevation Tamarack Lake, which is just slightly smaller than Storm Lake. 

This little lake in a cirque at the base of Warren Peak is a majestic spot, and sees very few visitors. It would be dangerous in winter though, if it were more accessible, with the steep cirque walls on three sides, avalanche danger would be extreme at times. As you can see, it looks very much like Upper Carpp Lake just over a few ridges on the north side of Warren Peak, although it is about 150m higher. 

We feel very fortunate to have these beautiful areas accessible to us within 90 min. drives from Missoula, followed by a few hours of skiing or hiking. As we'll discuss in later posts, the effects of global warming are making themselves known throughout the Central Rockies, and we see them here. For example, vast stands of Whitebark Pine and Subalpine Larch die-offs near tree-line from bug kills (due to warmer winters not killing as many of the pests off). Wildfire activity has also increased at the lower elevations, and it will only be a matter of time before this moves up into the higher elevations as well. But even with all that, the Pintler Mountains are a Montana treasure that are relatively undiscovered. We rarely ever saw more than a few people on all our outings here over the past 9 months, and sometimes, none! And all of the CRP staff were thus free to travel and enjoy the full benefits of this peaceful wilderness. Cheers.